Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 General Director of Administration of Meteorology of West Azerbaijan Province, Urmia, Iran
3 Head of Applied Meteorology Research Group of West Azerbaijan Meteorology, Urmia, Iran
4 Weather Forecaster, Administration of Meteorology of West Azerbaijan Province, Urmia, Iran
Abstract
This study investigates the risk of late spring frosts in West Azerbaijan province by developing a minimum air temperature estimation model. Utilizing daily minimum air temperature data from 20 meteorological stations, satellite-derived land surface temperature, and auxiliary data, a statistical model was developed. Subsequently, daily minimum temperature maps for potential spring frost months (in the period 2000-2023) were generated to analyze late spring frost risk. This research provides two novel tools: a code to estimate frost occurrence risk for specific day numbers and temperature thresholds, and another code to estimate the day number corresponding to a given risk percentage and temperature threshold. The frost risk estimation code offers 17,690 possible scenarios, while the day number estimation code provides 2,755, enabling detailed frost risk analysis for various plant sensitivities and optimized planting date determination. The resulting frost risk maps are valuable for determining suitable crop cultivation times and locations, considering varying plant sensitivity thresholds to frost.
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